The main objective of the project is to investigate how risk analysis theory can be adapted to European fisheries management, embracing the full process form stock assessment, projection and advice, via management decisions, to the practical implementation of the management measures, including control. Improved communication of such information to stakeholders and fisheries management will make it easier to achieve the long term goals of fisheries management, which ultimately aim to impact human behavior and through this to modulate human impacts on nature.
The components to be incorporated include risk identification and probabilistic evaluations of the potential consequences of alternative management actions (risk assessment), the formulation of tools to manage the risks (risk management), and the development of mechanisms to ensure that the outputs of risk assessment and the risk management options available are adequately understood by stakeholders (risk communication). A variety of potential formal approaches to risk management that have been applied in other relevant fields will be compiled and ones that may have considerable merits for European fisheries management will be identified.
The current risk methods are tested and compared to alternative methods. Recruitment models are developed to improve the predictability of future productivity of the stocks. Game theory will be applied to study how international agreements should deal with risk management. The risks caused by dioxin for consumers are studied in Baltic herring case study.